Let’s talk electability, folks. If you’re a Republican, you’ve come to the wrong blog. We’re talkin’ Clinton vs. Sanders in the Democratic primaries in 2016. So far, (date of writing: March 3) 15 of 50 states have completed voting: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia. Hillary Clinton has won mostly red states; Bernie Sanders has won mostly blue. Why does this matter? Because while the Democratic primaries are not winner-take-all in any state, in the general election in November, all states (except ME and NE) hold winner-take-all elections. Meaning, if the DNC wants the opinion of the people whose votes will matter in the general election, they will need to weight the states that are expected to go blue. Let’s do a comparison of those 15 states that have voted in the Democratic primaries/caucuses so far:
Clinton has won decisively in SC, TN, TX, GA, AL, and AR, all of which went Republican in 2012 and 2008 and can be expected to stay red. (AR did go blue for Bill in ‘92 and ‘96 because he was the governor, though it was solidly red in 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012. To give Hillary the benefit of the doubt, I address in one calculation below the possibility of AR going blue.) Clinton also decisively won VA, which is a swing state that went blue in the last two elections. Clinton also won in one blue state, NV.
Sanders has won decisively in VT, MN, and CO, which all went Democrat in 2012 and 2008 and can be expected to stay that way. He also won decisively in NH, which, though it went blue in 2008 and 2012 as well, could also be a swing state this time around. Sanders won one red state, OK, on top of that.
There were two states where the candidates were more or less tied: MA and IA. MA is a blue state, IA went blue in 2008 and 2012 but could be a swing state this year.
So, let’s first assume neither Sanders nor Clinton will win any red state, and toss those states out of our calculation since they likely won’t be of consequence for Democrats in the general election: SC, TN, TX, GA, AL, AR and OK. We will focus on those states that will are expected to either go blue or have close races (swing states) in the general election. In the solid-blue calculation (the first table below), I will attribute MA to both candidates, since it was a virtual tie. To deal with the possible swing states of NH (won by Bernie), IA (tie), and VA (won by Hillary), the second table assumes that those states go blue, once again attributing the state in which there was a virtual tie (IA) to both candidates.
Some states that have lots of delegates and that went blue in 2008 and 2012 and that have yet to vote are: CA (55), NY (29), FL (29), IL (20), PA (20) and OH (18). Sanders has been written off since Day One. But this Sad, Sad Man is looking forward to seeing how it all plays out.
Solid Blue States (number of general election delegates in parentheses)
Clinton
|
Sanders
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NV (6)
MA (11)
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VT (3)
CO (9)
MN (10)
MA (11)
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Total: 17
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Total: 33
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Solid Blue and Swing States (number of general election delegates in parentheses)
Clinton
|
Sanders
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NV (6)
MA (11)
IA (6)
VA (13)
*AR (6)
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VT (3)
CO (9)
MN (10)
MA (11)
IA (6)
NH (4)
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Total: 36 (*42, if AR goes blue)
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Total: 43
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Some states that have lots of delegates and that went blue in 2008 and 2012 and that have yet to vote are: CA (55), NY (29), FL (29), IL (20), PA (20) and OH (18). Sanders has been written off since Day One. But this Sad, Sad Man is looking forward to seeing how it all plays out.
